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Will you get nasty flu this year? The year you were born can predict it, says study
你的出生日期除了可以决定星座,还能用来预测你对哪种类型的流感病毒更具抵抗力。科学家近日发现,儿时感染的流感病毒会在一个人的免疫系统上留下永久“印记”,人们由此获得对类似疾病的强大免疫力,而对不太相似的疾病的抵抗力就弱得多。
When flu strikes, why are some family members reduced to shivering wrecks under their duvets, while others get off with little more than a snuffle?
当流感来袭时,为什么有些人蜷缩在羽绒被下瑟瑟发抖,而有的人最多就是有点鼻塞呢?
Scientists now have an answer, showing that the generation you belong to - and even the year of your birth - predicts how vulnerable you will be to a given strain of seasonal virus.
科学家们近日给出的答案显示,人们出生的年代甚至是年份预示着其抵御特定种类季节性流感的能力。
The flu virus a person first encounters as a child, they found, leaves a permanent "imprint" on the immune system, giving them robust protection against similar strains and much weaker protection against less closely related varieties of the illness.
他们发现,儿时感染的流感病毒会在一个人的免疫系统上留下永久“印记”,人们由此获得对类似疾病的强大免疫力,而对不太相似的疾病的抵抗力就弱得多。
Michael Worobey, head Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Arizona and a senior author of the study, said: "It's not the age, it's the birth year that matters."
美国亚利桑那大学生态与进化生物学专家、该研究报告的资深作者迈克尔•伍罗贝称,“这不是年龄的问题,而是和出生年份有关。”
In future, seasonal vaccines could be targeted at people of particular ages who are most likely to benefit, and in pandemics when medications are scarce, vulnerable age ranges could be prioritised for protective measures.
未来,可以根据特定年龄区分季节性流感疫苗最能受益的人群。当流感大爆发、药物稀缺时,可以对抵抗力低的年龄群体采取优先保护措施。
"It's breaking new ground for flu, where predictions are really hard," said Worobey. "For any given potential pandemic virus, we can actually now say ... this is the age group that you can expect is going to end up in hospital dying and this is the age group who will be protected."
伍罗贝说,“流感疾病难以预测,该研究在这方面取得了新突破。如今我们可以说,针对任何特定的潜在大型流感病毒,你可以预测哪个年龄群体很可能不治身亡,哪个年龄群体将得到保护。”
The age effect is seen because influenza A viruses - the kind considered most likely to cause pandemics - have evolved into two major branches known as type 1 and type 2 flus.
年龄效应可见于甲型流感病毒中。这是一种最可能广泛传播的流感病毒,已经演变出甲1型流感病毒、甲2型流感病毒两个主要分支。
Up until 1968 all viruses in circulation belonged to the type 1 branch; between 1968 and 1979, type 2 dominated. Since then, strains belonging to both branches have been in circulation simultaneously, but with one type tending to dominate each year. "It's like an oak tree that has a trunk that splits into two major branches and 1968 becomes this really clear dividing line," said Worobey.
1986年以前传播的所有流感病毒都属于甲1型,1968年至1979年间主要传播的是甲2流感病毒。此后,两种类型的流感病毒同时传播,但是每年有一种类型会占据主导地位。“这就像是橡树的主干长出两个主要分枝,1968年是清晰的分界线。”
Using vast databases of historical epidemiological data, the scientists tracked the susceptibility of each birth year from 1918 to the present to the different flus in circulation during their lifetime.
科学家们运用流行病学历史数据的庞大数据库,追踪从1918年至今每一年出生的人群对一生中所遇到的不同流感的易感程度。 |
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